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TOTO · Backtesting Observatory

Would these settings have beaten chance?

A walk-forward test: for each of the last 100 draws, the formulas see only earlier draws, generate 10 tickets, and are scored against what actually came out. The same number of fair random tickets is the baseline.

Formula

Default ensembleSkips (Saliu-inspired) onlyHot numbers onlyCo-occurrence network onlyPrimes & residues onlySet profile onlyBayesian rates onlyGolden ratio onlyFibonacci onlyFourier cycles only

Draws tested

50100200

Tickets per draw

1510

Seed

1Try another

Want finer control? Tune the weights in the Formula Lab, then choose “Backtest these settings”.

Replaying 100 TOTO draws and 1,000 random portfolios…

Based on 1,234 historical draws up to 2026-10-22. Source and provenance

Result

100 draws (#4129–#4228)

Prize hits

19

18.6 expected by chance

vs chance

1.02×

95% interval 0.61–1.59×

p-value

0.907

1.000 after Bonferroni

Monte Carlo

50th

percentile of 1,000 random runs

Consistent with chance. The difference from random tickets is the size you’d expect from luck alone.

1,000 tickets from 9 engines, seed 1. A hit is any prize-winning ticket.

Hits by prize group

observed / expected
Hits by prize tier against fair-random expectation
Group 1 · 607.2e-5
Group 2 · 5 + add.04.3e-4
Group 3 · 501.8e-2
Group 4 · 4 + add.04.5e-2
Group 5 · 420.9
Group 6 · 3 + add.31.2
Group 7 · 31416.4

Main numbers matched per ticket: 0: 429 (436) · 1: 425 (413) · 2: 127 (132) · 3: 17 (18) · 4: 2 (1) · 5: 0 (0) · 6: 0 (0)

Where this result falls

hits per random run
1,000 random portfolios This formula (19)

Winning draws

most recent first
  • #4211 · 2026-08-2415 16 22 37 39 44 · Group 7 · 3
  • #4208 · 2026-08-1304 15 22 32 35 37 · Group 6 · 3 + add.11 15 22 32 40 43 · Group 5 · 4
  • #4189 · 2026-06-0804 10 15 34 35 46 · Group 7 · 3
  • #4173 · 2026-04-1304 08 15 22 40 48 · Group 7 · 3
  • #4156 · 2026-02-1310 15 22 32 35 49 · Group 7 · 310 15 24 31 46 49 · Group 7 · 3
  • #4155 · 2026-02-0910 15 22 24 36 49 · Group 7 · 3
  • #4143 · 2025-12-2902 15 22 24 34 35 · Group 7 · 3
041 hits

Random runs: median 19, 90% between 12 and 26.

01 02 03 15 22 30 · Group 7 · 3
02 15 22 24 43 49 · Group 6 · 3 + add.
  • #4142 · 2025-12-2502 15 22 28 43 49 · Group 6 · 3 + add.08 15 22 28 35 37 · Group 5 · 401 08 15 22 43 46 · Group 7 · 301 15 22 28 43 46 · Group 7 · 310 15 22 28 35 43 · Group 7 · 3
  • #4140 · 2025-12-1802 15 22 28 43 49 · Group 7 · 302 15 18 22 31 35 · Group 7 · 3
  • #4135 · 2025-12-0108 10 15 35 46 49 · Group 7 · 3

    • 90 of 100 draws won nothing. Every miss counts in the totals above.